“If the Romney campaign’s internal numbers are similar to the public polls, then their decision to invest more heavily in Florida is unsurprising. After a wave of favorable polls following Romney’s triumph in the GOP primary, Obama appears to hold a modest lead in most surveys over the last 45 days. Representatively, two Quinnipiac polls conducted in June show Obama leading by 4 percentage points after the same firm showed Romney leading by an average of 3 or 4 percentage points in May.
Much of the change appears to be driven by a collapse in Romney’s favorability ratings among white working class voters—precisely the effect predicted by advocates of attacks on Romney’s time at Bain Capital. Romney’s favorability rating among white voters without a college degree dropped by a net-15 points between the May and June Quinnipiac polls and Romney’s standing in the horse race declined by a net-10 points.”
—Nate Cohn, “Does Romney Have a Florida Problem?”