The New Republic

The New Republic

Page 1 of 2

Scroll to Top

“If the Romney campaign’s internal numbers are similar to the public polls, then their decision to invest more heavily in Florida is unsurprising. After a wave of favorable polls following Romney’s triumph in the GOP primary, Obama appears to hold a modest lead in most surveys over the last 45 days. Representatively, two Quinnipiac polls conducted in June show Obama leading by 4 percentage points after the same firm showed Romney leading by an average of 3 or 4 percentage points in May. Much of the change appears to be driven by a collapse in Romney’s favorability ratings among white working class voters—precisely the effect predicted by advocates of attacks on Romney’s time at Bain Capital. Romney’s favorability rating among white voters without a college degree dropped by a net-15 points between the May and June Quinnipiac polls and Romney’s standing in the horse race declined by a net-10 points.” —Nate Cohn, “Does Romney Have a Florida Problem?”
Zoom Info

“If the Romney campaign’s internal numbers are similar to the public polls, then their decision to invest more heavily in Florida is unsurprising. After a wave of favorable polls following Romney’s triumph in the GOP primary, Obama appears to hold a modest lead in most surveys over the last 45 days. Representatively, two Quinnipiac polls conducted in June show Obama leading by 4 percentage points after the same firm showed Romney leading by an average of 3 or 4 percentage points in May.

Much of the change appears to be driven by a collapse in Romney’s favorability ratings among white working class voters—precisely the effect predicted by advocates of attacks on Romney’s time at Bain Capital. Romney’s favorability rating among white voters without a college degree dropped by a net-15 points between the May and June Quinnipiac polls and Romney’s standing in the horse race declined by a net-10 points.”

—Nate Cohn, “Does Romney Have a Florida Problem?”

Shouldn’t Republicans be in a far stronger position right now? “The new Bloomberg poll showing Barack Obama up 13 points over Mitt Romney is an obvious outlier. But it is prodding me again to a question that has been nagging at me the past few weeks: how is that Obama is not in truly serious trouble? All the talk recently has been of Obama’s prospects slipping, with him now only a couple points ahead of Romney, at best, in most polls. But he should be slipping! The economy, after showing signs of a solid recovery just a few months ago, is gasping for air again, and there may be worse on the way. This should be disastrous for the incumbent. Yet he’s very much in this thing. Part of this surely has to do with the dynamic that Team Obama is dearly banking on: many voters still blame Obama’s predecessor for the hard times. Part of it also has to do with Obama’s personal likability (which defies the deathless Beltway caricature of him as distant and aloof.) But there’s no getting around it: a huge part of it must have to do with his lackluster opposition.” - Alec MacGillis, “How Lucky is Obama in His Opponent?“ 
Zoom

Shouldn’t Republicans be in a far stronger position right now?

“The new Bloomberg poll showing Barack Obama up 13 points over Mitt Romney is an obvious outlier. But it is prodding me again to a question that has been nagging at me the past few weeks: how is that Obama is not in truly serious trouble? All the talk recently has been of Obama’s prospects slipping, with him now only a couple points ahead of Romney, at best, in most polls. But he should be slipping! The economy, after showing signs of a solid recovery just a few months ago, is gasping for air again, and there may be worse on the way. This should be disastrous for the incumbent. Yet he’s very much in this thing. Part of this surely has to do with the dynamic that Team Obama is dearly banking on: many voters still blame Obama’s predecessor for the hard times. Part of it also has to do with Obama’s personal likability (which defies the deathless Beltway caricature of him as distant and aloof.)

But there’s no getting around it: a huge part of it must have to do with his lackluster opposition.”

- Alec MacGillis, “How Lucky is Obama in His Opponent?“ 

Is there a reason to be optimistic about the economy again? “Once again, today’s biggest political news isn’t about the Republican candidates or the President, even though the former are battling in Florida and the latter is about to give the State of the Union address. It’s the latest Gallup survey, which shows economic confidence has risen sharply since August and is now at levels not seen since May. That report is consistent with the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, in which confidence in the economy reaches its highest rate in months.” — Johnathan Cohn, “Biggest Political News of the Day” For continued analysis of political and economic news, turn daily to TNR Senior Editor Jonathan Cohn’s blog and of TNR’s 2012 campaign blog, the Stump. Photo courtesy of Gallup.
Zoom

Is there a reason to be optimistic about the economy again?

“Once again, today’s biggest political news isn’t about the Republican candidates or the President, even though the former are battling in Florida and the latter is about to give the State of the Union address. It’s the latest Gallup survey, which shows economic confidence has risen sharply since August and is now at levels not seen since May. That report is consistent with the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, in which confidence in the economy reaches its highest rate in months.”

— Johnathan Cohn, “Biggest Political News of the Day”

For continued analysis of political and economic news, turn daily to TNR Senior Editor Jonathan Cohn’s blog and of TNR’s 2012 campaign blog, the Stump.

Photo courtesy of Gallup.

Is Obama toast? The New York Times’s election wunderkind, Nate Silver, posed that question last week. Yet, recent polls show that President Obama may actually be gaining ground. “The election is a year away, the Republican primaries still haven’t started, and any number of highly plausible scenarios could undermine President Obama’s reelection prospects. But the polls are starting to confirm what a lot of us already suspected: Obama’s political support is rising again.” - Jonathan Cohn, “Obama Support Rising? Gallup Says Yes.” Photo courtesy of Gallup.
Zoom

Is Obama toast?

The New York Times’s election wunderkind, Nate Silver, posed that question last week.

Yet, recent polls show that President Obama may actually be gaining ground.

“The election is a year away, the Republican primaries still haven’t started, and any number of highly plausible scenarios could undermine President Obama’s reelection prospects. But the polls are starting to confirm what a lot of us already suspected: Obama’s political support is rising again.”

- Jonathan Cohn, “Obama Support Rising? Gallup Says Yes.”

Photo courtesy of Gallup.

Rick Perry is shaking up his languishing presidential campaign today. First, the Texas governor made good on a promised  big announcement last week by releasing a 20% flat tax proposal. Second, Perry mixed up his campaign staff, bringing in Jim Allbaugh, the day-to-day manager of George W. Bush’s campaigns, to take the helm of a once cohesive team of insiders. Is today’s urgency to triage the campaign a sign that Perry’s camp is in much more trouble than previously believed? For more, read Alec MacGillis’s insider analysis on TNR’s 2012 presidential campaign blog, the Stump. Photo courtesy of the Guardian.
Zoom

Rick Perry is shaking up his languishing presidential campaign today.

First, the Texas governor made good on a promised  big announcement last week by releasing a 20% flat tax proposal.

Second, Perry mixed up his campaign staff, bringing in Jim Allbaugh, the day-to-day manager of George W. Bush’s campaigns, to take the helm of a once cohesive team of insiders.

Is today’s urgency to triage the campaign a sign that Perry’s camp is in much more trouble than previously believed?

For more, read Alec MacGillis’s insider analysis on TNR’s 2012 presidential campaign blog, the Stump.

Photo courtesy of the Guardian.

A recently released United Technologies/National Journal survey shows that an overwhelming majority of Americans support the Occupy Wall Street protesters and surtaxes on the rich. Yet, there may be a political caveat. “The cautionary note, for Democrats and liberals, is that respondents blame inaction from Washington on ‘fighting between Democrats and Republicans’ — as opposed to obstruction by Republicans. When you hear Democrats from more conservative areas say they worry Obama’s more aggressive, partisan style is alienating their constituents, that mentality is what they have in mind.” - Jonathan Cohn, “Bash Wall Street? Tax the Rich? Survey says…Yes” Read the rest of Jonathan Cohn’s blog post to find out what these numbers mean for Occupy Wall Street, the Obama administration, and plans for liberal populists, here. Photo courtesy of National Journal.
Zoom

A recently released United Technologies/National Journal survey shows that an overwhelming majority of Americans support the Occupy Wall Street protesters and surtaxes on the rich.

Yet, there may be a political caveat.

“The cautionary note, for Democrats and liberals, is that respondents blame inaction from Washington on ‘fighting between Democrats and Republicans’ — as opposed to obstruction by Republicans. When you hear Democrats from more conservative areas say they worry Obama’s more aggressive, partisan style is alienating their constituents, that mentality is what they have in mind.”

- Jonathan Cohn, “Bash Wall Street? Tax the Rich? Survey says…Yes”

Read the rest of Jonathan Cohn’s blog post to find out what these numbers mean for Occupy Wall Street, the Obama administration, and plans for liberal populists, here.

Photo courtesy of National Journal.

For the first time in GALLUP polling history, a majority of Americans say that they support the legalization of marijuana. Support is strongest in those 18-35, and weakest in those over 65, so don’t worry, pot aficionados, your opponents will be dead soon. Photo courtesy of Gallup.
Zoom

For the first time in GALLUP polling history, a majority of Americans say that they support the legalization of marijuana. Support is strongest in those 18-35, and weakest in those over 65, so don’t worry, pot aficionados, your opponents will be dead soon.

Photo courtesy of Gallup.

Fresh off announcing her bid last week for the Senate seat vacated by the late Ted Kennedy, there is more good news for Harvard Law professor, turned consumer advocate, Elizabeth Warren. She now leads incumbent Republican Senator Scott Brown by two points in the Massachusetts Senate race, according to an early poll released this morning by Public Policy Polling. Warren, who drew early criticism for her Harvard proclivities prior to announcing her decision to run for the seat, stepped up her campaign in the last few days with more serious rhetoric: “There is nobody in this country who got rich on his own. Nobody. You built a factory out there — good for you. But I want to be clear. You moved your goods to market on the roads the rest of us paid for. You hired workers the rest of us paid to educate. You were safe in your factory because of police forces and fire forces that the rest of us paid for. You didn’t have to worry that marauding bands would come and seize everything at your factory… Now look. You built a factory and it turned into something terrific or a great idea — God Bless! Keep a big hunk of it. But part of the underlying social contract is you take a hunk of that and pay forward for the next kid who comes along.” Today’s poll results are a big improvement over Boston’s NPR news station’s poll several weeks ago that found Warren trailing Brown by 9 points and July internal polling by the Republican Senator’s office that found him leading Warren by 20 points. Now Warren holds a razor-thin lead over Scott Brown, at 46-44 percent among the state’s voters. While it is still too early to make predictions, TNR is excited to watch as the Massachusetts Senate race begins to unfold. Courtesy of the AtlanticWire
Zoom

Fresh off announcing her bid last week for the Senate seat vacated by the late Ted Kennedy, there is more good news for Harvard Law professor, turned consumer advocate, Elizabeth Warren. She now leads incumbent Republican Senator Scott Brown by two points in the Massachusetts Senate race, according to an early poll released this morning by Public Policy Polling.

Warren, who drew early criticism for her Harvard proclivities prior to announcing her decision to run for the seat, stepped up her campaign in the last few days with more serious rhetoric:

“There is nobody in this country who got rich on his own. Nobody. You built a factory out there — good for you. But I want to be clear. You moved your goods to market on the roads the rest of us paid for. You hired workers the rest of us paid to educate. You were safe in your factory because of police forces and fire forces that the rest of us paid for. You didn’t have to worry that marauding bands would come and seize everything at your factory… Now look. You built a factory and it turned into something terrific or a great idea — God Bless! Keep a big hunk of it. But part of the underlying social contract is you take a hunk of that and pay forward for the next kid who comes along.”

Today’s poll results are a big improvement over Boston’s NPR news station’s poll several weeks ago that found Warren trailing Brown by 9 points and July internal polling by the Republican Senator’s office that found him leading Warren by 20 points. Now Warren holds a razor-thin lead over Scott Brown, at 46-44 percent among the state’s voters.

While it is still too early to make predictions, TNR is excited to watch as the Massachusetts Senate race begins to unfold.

Courtesy of the AtlanticWire

A new poll by Bloomberg shows four out of every ten people in the U.S. are doubtful of elected officials’ ability to get them out of our nation’s current economic slump, and most unhappy Americans blame Republicans for problems in Washington. Full poll results are here. Registered Republican Nicole Olin, 31, a bank supervisor: “I do put the majority of blame on the Republicans, because they seem to be the least willing to give up anything”. While neither party seems to be basking in high approval ratings, find out why TNR’s Timothy Noah thinks Obama is still unbeatable. Courtesy of Bloomberg
Zoom

A new poll by Bloomberg shows four out of every ten people in the U.S. are doubtful of elected officials’ ability to get them out of our nation’s current economic slump, and most unhappy Americans blame Republicans for problems in Washington. Full poll results are here.

Registered Republican Nicole Olin, 31, a bank supervisor:

“I do put the majority of blame on the Republicans, because they seem to be the least willing to give up anything”.

While neither party seems to be basking in high approval ratings, find out why TNR’s Timothy Noah thinks Obama is still unbeatable.

Courtesy of Bloomberg