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Are the new job numbers a hopeful sign? It might be tempting to read today’s expectations-beating jobs number—163,000, against private forecasts in the neighborhood of 100,000—as a sign the economy is surging just in time to help Barack Obama. My take is a bit more pessimistic, though not quite demoralizing. Noam Scheiber — “The New Jobs Number: OK For Obama, Less So For the Country”
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Are the new job numbers a hopeful sign?

It might be tempting to read today’s expectations-beating jobs number—163,000, against private forecasts in the neighborhood of 100,000—as a sign the economy is surging just in time to help Barack Obama. My take is a bit more pessimistic, though not quite demoralizing.

Noam Scheiber — “The New Jobs Number: OK For Obama, Less So For the Country”

Does the 2012 campaign really mirror 2004? The emerging conventional wisdom among many Democrats takes the form of two equations: 2012 = 2004, and Bain = Swift Boats. There’s also a supporting narrative: The negative campaign against John Kerry fatally weakened his candidacy, securing the victory of an incumbent who could not have won based on his own record. And so, the idea goes, a president whose performance the public doesn’t much like can power his way to a narrow, less than pretty win by eviscerating his challenger. But the evidence in favor of all of these propositions is remarkably thin. The basic structure of the 2004 campaign differed fundamentally from the one we’re now enduring. The available evidence suggests that even in the short-term, the attacks on Romney have been measurably less successful than were those on Kerry. And Obama’s supporters seem to have forgotten that the reason Bush prevailed was because enough Americans ended up approving of his record and leadership in the areas they cared about the most. William Galston — “False Analogy: Why the 2012 Campaign is Nothing Like 2004”
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Does the 2012 campaign really mirror 2004?

The emerging conventional wisdom among many Democrats takes the form of two equations: 2012 = 2004, and Bain = Swift Boats. There’s also a supporting narrative: The negative campaign against John Kerry fatally weakened his candidacy, securing the victory of an incumbent who could not have won based on his own record. And so, the idea goes, a president whose performance the public doesn’t much like can power his way to a narrow, less than pretty win by eviscerating his challenger.

But the evidence in favor of all of these propositions is remarkably thin. The basic structure of the 2004 campaign differed fundamentally from the one we’re now enduring. The available evidence suggests that even in the short-term, the attacks on Romney have been measurably less successful than were those on Kerry. And Obama’s supporters seem to have forgotten that the reason Bush prevailed was because enough Americans ended up approving of his record and leadership in the areas they cared about the most.

William Galston — “False Analogy: Why the 2012 Campaign is Nothing Like 2004”

Can Obama woo rich voters with his brand of economic populism?  Affluent voters were an important element of Obama’s coalition in 2008. Will that change this year? Some observers believe that Obama might alienate former supporters with attacks on Bain Capital and renewed calls to raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans. While the assumption that these tactics would alienate upscale voters is superficially appealing, most polls tell a different story. Voters from households making more than $100,000 year were an important part of Obama’s coalition; especially in the “new coalition” states where Obama primarily drew support from well-educated suburbs and minority voters. In some states, one-third of Obama’s supporters came from affluent households and meaningful losses among these voters would endanger Obama’s chances. Nate Cohn — “Is Obama Alienating Rich Voters?”
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Can Obama woo rich voters with his brand of economic populism? 

Affluent voters were an important element of Obama’s coalition in 2008. Will that change this year? Some observers believe that Obama might alienate former supporters with attacks on Bain Capital and renewed calls to raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans. While the assumption that these tactics would alienate upscale voters is superficially appealing, most polls tell a different story.

Voters from households making more than $100,000 year were an important part of Obama’s coalition; especially in the “new coalition” states where Obama primarily drew support from well-educated suburbs and minority voters. In some states, one-third of Obama’s supporters came from affluent households and meaningful losses among these voters would endanger Obama’s chances.

Nate Cohn — “Is Obama Alienating Rich Voters?”

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President Obama Makes an Empirical Case for Re-Election

“The difference between Romney’s vision, rather than Obama’s, would be many fewer people with health insurance, into the tens of millions; less money for a variety of federal programs, including ones that help young people pay for college, enable poor people to get food, and provide public safety; fewer dollars for repairing broken down bridges, upgrading public transportation and other infrastructure investments; and much, much lower taxes for wealthy Americans.”

- Jonathan Cohn, “Yes, Romney’s Vision for America Really Is That Scary”

How should Obama handle rising gas prices?“During his press conference on March 6, Barack Obama remarked that there’s “no silver bullet” to stem rising gas prices in the short term—and in the view of most energy experts, he’s right. The problem, though, is that the American people don’t agree.”-William Galston, What Obama Should and Shouldn’t Do About High Gas Prices Photo courtesy of Politico
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How should Obama handle rising gas prices?

“During his press conference on March 6, Barack Obama remarked that there’s “no silver bullet” to stem rising gas prices in the short term—and in the view of most energy experts, he’s right. The problem, though, is that the American people don’t agree.”

-William Galston, What Obama Should and Shouldn’t Do About High Gas Prices

Photo courtesy of Politico

Does Romney have it right on minimum wage?“It’s well known that Mitt Romney is a shameless flip-flopper ready to shed any and all traces of his former moderation to win the GOP nomination. But this week we’ve seen an instance where Romney has been falsely accused of flip-flopping, yet Romney, hilariously, hasn’t protested, presumably because he has no particular interest in correcting the record.”- Timothy Noah, Psst. Romney Still Supports Minimum WageImage courtesy of Photobucket
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Does Romney have it right on minimum wage?

“It’s well known that Mitt Romney is a shameless flip-flopper ready to shed any and all traces of his former moderation to win the GOP nomination. But this week we’ve seen an instance where Romney has been falsely accused of flip-flopping, yet Romney, hilariously, hasn’t protested, presumably because he has no particular interest in correcting the record.”

- Timothy Noah, Psst. Romney Still Supports Minimum Wage

Image courtesy of Photobucket

Can we say that the economy is in recovery yet?“This morning’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the economy added 227,000 jobs last month. The unemployment rate did not change: It’s still 8.3 percent. But that is not surprising and that is not necessarily bad news.”- Jonathan Cohn, New Jobs Report: Can We Say “Recovery” Yet?
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Can we say that the economy is in recovery yet?

“This morning’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the economy added 227,000 jobs last month. The unemployment rate did not change: It’s still 8.3 percent. But that is not surprising and that is not necessarily bad news.”

- Jonathan Cohn, New Jobs Report: Can We Say “Recovery” Yet?

Can the Greek economy recover?“The economic crisis in Europe reached its latest crescendo last night, as Greece managed, through furious last-minute negotiations, to convince its creditors to give it some more breathing room. But if the Greeks have managed to stake off ruin for a few more minutes, nothing has essentially changed in their situation: Their economy is still in shambles.” -Peter Baldwin, Tracing Europe’s Long Road to Economic CatastrophePhoto courtesy of telegraph.co.uk
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Can the Greek economy recover?

“The economic crisis in Europe reached its latest crescendo last night, as Greece managed, through furious last-minute negotiations, to convince its creditors to give it some more breathing room. But if the Greeks have managed to stake off ruin for a few more minutes, nothing has essentially changed in their situation: Their economy is still in shambles.”

-Peter Baldwin, Tracing Europe’s Long Road to Economic Catastrophe

Photo courtesy of telegraph.co.uk

Why everyone overestimates American equality of opportunity. Read an excerpt from Senior Editor Timothy Noah’s upcoming book, The Great Divergence: America’s Growing Inequality Crisis and What We Can Do About It, published in the March 1, 2012 issue of the magazine. “Most of Western Europe today is both more equal in income and more econmically mobile than the United States. And it isn’t just Western Europe. Countries as varied as Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, and Pakistan all have higher degrees of income mobility than we do. A nation that prides itself on its lack of class rigidity has, in short, become significantly more economically rigid than many other developed countries. How did our perception of ourselves end up so far out of sync with reality?” —Timothy Noah, “The Mobility Myth: Why everyone overestimates American equality of opportunity.”
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Why everyone overestimates American equality of opportunity.

Read an excerpt from Senior Editor Timothy Noah’s upcoming book, The Great Divergence: America’s Growing Inequality Crisis and What We Can Do About It, published in the March 1, 2012 issue of the magazine.

“Most of Western Europe today is both more equal in income and more econmically mobile than the United States. And it isn’t just Western Europe. Countries as varied as Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, and Pakistan all have higher degrees of income mobility than we do. A nation that prides itself on its lack of class rigidity has, in short, become significantly more economically rigid than many other developed countries. How did our perception of ourselves end up so far out of sync with reality?”

—Timothy Noah, “The Mobility Myth: Why everyone overestimates American equality of opportunity.”