The New Republic

The New Republic

Does the 2012 campaign really mirror 2004? The emerging conventional wisdom among many Democrats takes the form of two equations: 2012 = 2004, and Bain = Swift Boats. There’s also a supporting narrative: The negative campaign against John Kerry fatally weakened his candidacy, securing the victory of an incumbent who could not have won based on his own record. And so, the idea goes, a president whose performance the public doesn’t much like can power his way to a narrow, less than pretty win by eviscerating his challenger. But the evidence in favor of all of these propositions is remarkably thin. The basic structure of the 2004 campaign differed fundamentally from the one we’re now enduring. The available evidence suggests that even in the short-term, the attacks on Romney have been measurably less successful than were those on Kerry. And Obama’s supporters seem to have forgotten that the reason Bush prevailed was because enough Americans ended up approving of his record and leadership in the areas they cared about the most. William Galston — “False Analogy: Why the 2012 Campaign is Nothing Like 2004”
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Does the 2012 campaign really mirror 2004?

The emerging conventional wisdom among many Democrats takes the form of two equations: 2012 = 2004, and Bain = Swift Boats. There’s also a supporting narrative: The negative campaign against John Kerry fatally weakened his candidacy, securing the victory of an incumbent who could not have won based on his own record. And so, the idea goes, a president whose performance the public doesn’t much like can power his way to a narrow, less than pretty win by eviscerating his challenger.

But the evidence in favor of all of these propositions is remarkably thin. The basic structure of the 2004 campaign differed fundamentally from the one we’re now enduring. The available evidence suggests that even in the short-term, the attacks on Romney have been measurably less successful than were those on Kerry. And Obama’s supporters seem to have forgotten that the reason Bush prevailed was because enough Americans ended up approving of his record and leadership in the areas they cared about the most.

William Galston — “False Analogy: Why the 2012 Campaign is Nothing Like 2004”

Chuck Dixon, creator of Batman villain Bane, tries to assuage Rush Limbaugh’s fears of a liberal Hollywood conspiracy  According to Dixon, Bane was created to fill a need for a year-long story arc featuring the Dark Knight’s downfall. “We didn’t want any old slob,” he told me. “We created a new character who was Batman’s physical and intellectual equal, so that it seemed like a fair fight.” So whence the name? “Poisonous,” Dixon responded. “Nice and punchy.” Which makes you wonder if Romney would be in less trouble had he worked for 15 years—or 18 years, according to certain SEC filings—at a place with a slightly less catchy name. Echoing what he told the radio show, Dixon added, “Once the movie comes out, it’s going to be pretty clear that Mitt Romney and Bane have nothing at all in common. We’re talking about a billionaire playboy running for president: I think there’s another character more like Mitt Romney.” Marc Tracy — “A Bain By Any Other Spelling”
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Chuck Dixon, creator of Batman villain Bane, tries to assuage Rush Limbaugh’s fears of a liberal Hollywood conspiracy 

According to Dixon, Bane was created to fill a need for a year-long story arc featuring the Dark Knight’s downfall. “We didn’t want any old slob,” he told me. “We created a new character who was Batman’s physical and intellectual equal, so that it seemed like a fair fight.” So whence the name? “Poisonous,” Dixon responded. “Nice and punchy.” Which makes you wonder if Romney would be in less trouble had he worked for 15 years—or 18 years, according to certain SEC filings—at a place with a slightly less catchy name.

Echoing what he told the radio show, Dixon added, “Once the movie comes out, it’s going to be pretty clear that Mitt Romney and Bane have nothing at all in common. We’re talking about a billionaire playboy running for president: I think there’s another character more like Mitt Romney.”

Marc Tracy — “A Bain By Any Other Spelling”

“If the Romney campaign’s internal numbers are similar to the public polls, then their decision to invest more heavily in Florida is unsurprising. After a wave of favorable polls following Romney’s triumph in the GOP primary, Obama appears to hold a modest lead in most surveys over the last 45 days. Representatively, two Quinnipiac polls conducted in June show Obama leading by 4 percentage points after the same firm showed Romney leading by an average of 3 or 4 percentage points in May. Much of the change appears to be driven by a collapse in Romney’s favorability ratings among white working class voters—precisely the effect predicted by advocates of attacks on Romney’s time at Bain Capital. Romney’s favorability rating among white voters without a college degree dropped by a net-15 points between the May and June Quinnipiac polls and Romney’s standing in the horse race declined by a net-10 points.” —Nate Cohn, “Does Romney Have a Florida Problem?”
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“If the Romney campaign’s internal numbers are similar to the public polls, then their decision to invest more heavily in Florida is unsurprising. After a wave of favorable polls following Romney’s triumph in the GOP primary, Obama appears to hold a modest lead in most surveys over the last 45 days. Representatively, two Quinnipiac polls conducted in June show Obama leading by 4 percentage points after the same firm showed Romney leading by an average of 3 or 4 percentage points in May.

Much of the change appears to be driven by a collapse in Romney’s favorability ratings among white working class voters—precisely the effect predicted by advocates of attacks on Romney’s time at Bain Capital. Romney’s favorability rating among white voters without a college degree dropped by a net-15 points between the May and June Quinnipiac polls and Romney’s standing in the horse race declined by a net-10 points.”

—Nate Cohn, “Does Romney Have a Florida Problem?”

What do voters really think about Romney’s wealth? “Among Beltway liberals, there is currently an unquestioned assumption that these attacks will work in the general election: that Romney’s wealth and business background are indeed major political liabilities. But talking to people like Lavallee, Strietback, and Field made me wonder: Would such attacks really stick? Is it actually possible to win an election by portraying your opponent as a plutocrat? Or will many American voters respond to Romney’s financial success with a simple shrug?” -Alec MacGillis, “The Guy Who Fires You”
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What do voters really think about Romney’s wealth?

“Among Beltway liberals, there is currently an unquestioned assumption that these attacks will work in the general election: that Romney’s wealth and business background are indeed major political liabilities. But talking to people like Lavallee, Strietback, and Field made me wonder: Would such attacks really stick? Is it actually possible to win an election by portraying your opponent as a plutocrat? Or will many American voters respond to Romney’s financial success with a simple shrug?”

-Alec MacGillis, “The Guy Who Fires You”