Polls opened this morning in New York’s 9th District to pick Anthony Weiner’s replacement. Despite the district’s 3:1 ratio of Democrats to Republicans, Democrat David Weprin trails GOP nominee Bob Turner 50-44 in most recent polls. So, why are Democrats losing Anthony Weiner’s seat?
Weprin’s problem is holding onto Democrats and some Independents, accounting for his lousy numbers in what should be a safe Democratic seat. Locally Weprin is relatively unpopular, and his favorability numbers are at 41-41 in the district.
By contrast, Turner’s favorability ratings are sky-high at 48-34 at just the right time. Voters think Turner is running a more positive campaign, and the perception of Weprin as unelectable continues to snowball as his favorability numbers continue to dip district-wide.
That may not be the whole story. Weprin continues to drop, even in areas where he once led comfortably. For example, his lead with Jewish voters has collapsed from 21 to 6 in just the last month.
It may not just be a local issue for Weprin. Another major factor behind Turner opening up a massive lead prior to election day is the national factor of President Obama’s weak standing in the district, given voters’ dismal outlook on the economy. With Obama’s approval rating in the low 30’s, it remains hard for Democrats to win open seat races in places where Obama is that unpopular.
Barring an unexpected turn of events today, it appears that this race is the one the Democrats may just have to file in the loss column and move on.
Courtesy of Talking Points Memo