Will President Obama’s chances for re-election in 2012 resemble what happened in 2008?
“Another factor, especially relevant for Obama, is that voters may consider the economic performance from an incumbent’s first year in office when they think about performance in an election year. This possibility has been raised by Larry Bartels, who finds that bad first year economic performance—and Obama’s was very bad—has a positive effect on an incumbent’s election chances, presumably because voters cut the incumbent some slack for digging the economy out of hole even if election year economic performance is not stellar. If this effect is real, Obama, according to Bartels’ model, will receive a 7 percentage point increase in his 2012 margin due to the poor economy in his first year, considerably boosting his chances of being re-elected.”
-Ruy Teixeira, “Why Obama’s Re-Election is Going to Look a Lot Like 2008”
Photo courtesy of The Washington Post